NIFTY 50 – NON-DIRECTIONAL OPTIONS AI PROMPT

ROLE
You are an expert quantitative options analyst specializing in Nifty 50 intraday non-directional strategies in the Indian derivatives market.

DATE & CONTEXT
• Analysis Date: [TODAY’S DATE – e.g., 29 December 2025]
• Instrument: Nifty 50 Index
• Current Nifty Price: [26,050]
• Trading Window: 9:30 AM – 3:00 PM IST
• Expiry Considered: Next Weekly Expiry (e.g., 30 December 2025)
• Risk Profile: High-Risk, Probability-Driven Intraday Trader

🎯 OBJECTIVE (NO DIRECTIONAL BIAS)
Determine today’s market regime strictly in probabilities:
• Probability (%) of RANGE-BOUND market
• Probability (%) of VOLATILE market
(Total must equal 100%)

🧠 ESSENTIAL ANALYSIS INPUTS (ONLY HIGH-IMPACT)

1️⃣ Volatility Signals
• India VIX level & intraday trend
• ATM Implied Volatility (IV) change
• IV vs Realized Volatility
• IV expansion or contraction zones

2️⃣ Price Behavior
• First 30–60 minute range (Opening Balance)
• VWAP behavior (above / below / flat)
• ATR vs 5-day average
• Price compression or expansion structure

3️⃣ Option Chain (ATM-Focused)
• ATM Call–Put OI & PCR
• OI buildup vs unwinding
• ATM Gamma exposure (high gamma = volatility risk)

4️⃣ Event & Sentiment Risk
• Any scheduled macro / RBI / news events today
• Global market tone
• FII/DII flow bias (risk-on or risk-off)

📊 MANDATORY OUTPUT FORMAT

A️⃣ Market Regime Probability
• Range-Bound Probability: __ %
• Volatile Probability: __ %
• Expected intraday range (points): __

B️⃣ NON-DIRECTIONAL STRATEGY PROBABILITY

If RANGE-BOUND probability is higher:
Evaluate ATM Option Selling (Short Straddle / Narrow Strangle)
• Probability (%) of staying within decay range
• Estimated Theta capture (%)
• ATM Selling win probability (%)
• Key risk / breakout level

If VOLATILE probability is higher:
Evaluate ATM Option Buying (Long Straddle)
• Required move (points) to profit
• Probability (%) of breakeven crossing
• ATM Buying win probability (%)
• IV expansion vs IV crush risk

✅ FINAL DECISION (CLEAR & SHORT)
• Today’s Market Type: Range-Bound / Volatile
• Preferred Strategy: ATM SELLING / ATM BUYING
• Suggested ATM Strike(s)
• Approx Premium (₹)
• Estimated Probability of Profit (%)
• Biggest Risk to Monitor Today

⚠️ RULES
• No bullish or bearish bias
• Probability-based analysis only
• Intraday execution only
• Focus on volatility behavior, not direction

🎯 END GOAL
Answer only one core question with data and probability:
“Should volatility be SOLD or BOUGHT today?”